Q2 Trade Recap & Q3 Strategy Outlook:
We wrapped up Q2 with a solid performance though, in hindsight, it could’ve been stronger had we held our conviction in a few names we exited early (more on that below). Our 2025 strategy has centered around swing trading high-conviction setups tied to catalyst events, and so far, that playbook has served us well.
In this kind of macro-driven, news-sensitive market, we’ve learned that locking in gains beats riding out unnecessary downside. Like mama always said, “You can’t go broke taking profits.”
Recent Moves:
New Positions: ATS, Ouster (OUST), Serve Robotics (SERV)
We initiated positions in these names as part of a broader pivot toward the robotics and automation space. This theme, supercharged by advancements in AI, looks primed for secular growth and M&A activity over the next 12–24 months. We're allocating fresh capital toward this emerging leadership group early.
Lessons from Exits:
Sold Too Soon:
Nike (NKE): +22% after we exited
BlackSky (BKSY): +30% since sale
ACM Research (ACMR): +10%
American Superconductor (AMSC): +32%
Tough to watch these names rally without us but this serves as a reminder that conviction and patience are critical. Volatility shook us out, and while risk management matters, sometimes it pays to ride through the noise.
Q3 Sector Strategy:
As we head into the back half of the year, we expect leadership to broaden beyond just megacap tech. That means portfolios should maintain balanced exposure across:
Defensive sectors (to buffer against macro risks)
Cyclicals (to capture upside from potential growth surprises)
Growth names (especially robotics, AI, crypto infrastructure)
We're overweight:
Tech: particularly AI and robotics, which are seeing capital inflows and strategic interest
Crypto: ahead of anticipated legislation and renewed institutional flows
M&A-Linked Midcaps: names with takeover appeal in consolidating sectors
We’re underweight:
Healthcare: due to reimbursement risk and stalled innovation cycles
Materials: particularly as trade policy and slower global growth may cap upside
Geographic Allocation:
We still favor U.S. equities for their exposure to high-quality and innovation-driven sectors.
We maintain an underweight to:
Canadian large caps, given commodity drag and housing pressure
Final Takeaway:
With equity indices flirting with all-time highs, it’s wise to brace for volatility. Softening data or geopolitical uncertainty could trigger pullbacks but we view these as opportunities, not threats.
The broader setup remains constructive, and Q3 may offer tactical entry points for patient, selective investors.
We’ll continue to lean into strength, manage risk through position sizing, and stay agile heading into the next round of earnings and macro catalysts.
Most Recent Reports (click link):
Top 9 IPO & SPAC Candidates to Watch in 2025
Watching Watchlist #9 2025 (Swings)
Watching Watchlist #8 2025 (small caps)
"Domo Arigato, Mr. Roboto" Robot Stocks Overview 2025
Longs:
These are stocks we have been long for some time and the current BT doesn’t represent other entry prices, The BT is updated weekly for new subscribers to jump in and know when to get out.
These stocks tend to have 6 Month-2 years holding period and is suggested for larger capital Allocations in your portfolio.
Please read the Overviews for full research and instructions on how to trade each name individually
Company: ATS Corporation
Quote: $ATS
BT: $29.72
ST: $48
Sharks Opinion:
Last week, ATS stock pulled back modestly after its long standing CEO was poached by Baxter International.
While some investors may have viewed the departure as a short-term negative, we saw it as a tactical opportunity to step in on weakness. Leadership changes often cause temporary dislocation in price but in this case, we believe the underlying thesis remains fully intact.
ATS isn’t usually the flashiest name on the tape. It’s a steady operator quiet, industrial, methodical. But lately, we've seen a notable uptick in momentum, and technically, the stock looks primed for a potential breakout.
We initiated a starter position into this recent dip, viewing it as a compelling long-term setup. Volume has started to increase on the heels of the CEO news, which typically signals institutional repositioning or accumulation. That said, we expect this to be a slower developing trade rather than a quick swing.
We continue to rank ATS as our top robotics sector pick offering real industrial exposure to automation, AI-driven manufacturing, and reshoring trends. As capital rotates into next-gen robotics and automation plays, ATS is well-positioned to benefit both from organic growth and M&A upside in the sector.
Description: ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides automation solutions worldwide. The company is involved in planning, designing, building, commissioning, and servicing automated manufacturing and assembly systems, including automation products and test solutions. It also offers pre-automation services comprising discovery and analysis, concept development, simulation, and total cost of ownership modelling; post-automation services, including training, process optimization, preventative maintenance, emergency and on-call support, spare parts, retooling, retrofits, and equipment relocation; and contract manufacturing services, as well as after sales and services.
ATS is a behind-the-scenes powerhouse in the robotics and automation world. As both a System Integrator and an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), ATS plays a crucial role in automating the production lines of some of the world’s biggest companies. What sets it apart is its full-stack offering everything from pre-automation consulting to post-installation support.
At the front end, ATS works with clients to assess feasibility through concept design, simulations, and cost modeling. Once a project moves forward, ATS builds and integrates tailored automation systems using both proprietary and third-party components, while layering in software, engineering, and controls. And it doesn’t stop at delivery the company stays involved with training, process optimization, emergency repairs, spare parts, and even retooling or relocating equipment. This makes ATS more than just an automation vendor it’s a long-term automation partner.
Financially, the company continues to show solid operating performance. For the quarter ending March 31, 2025, ATS posted revenues of $721 million.
While it recorded a net loss of $68.9 million and a loss from operations of $113.6 million primarily driven by items related to a recent agreement its adjusted results paint a stronger picture. Adjusted net income came in at $40 million, adjusted earnings from operations reached $74.3 million (a 10.3% margin), and adjusted EBITDA totaled $97.1 million (13.5% margin). That kind of profitability in a capital-intensive sector speaks to how well-managed ATS is.
The company also posted $863 million in new order bookings during the quarter and now sits on a robust order backlog of $2.14 billion, providing solid visibility into future revenue.
All in, ATS is a vertically integrated automation play with strong financials, recurring revenue streams, and deep relationships in critical industries from pharma to nuclear. It's not flashy, but it’s the kind of quiet compounder that can surprise to the upside, especially as the broader robotics and automation trend gains momentum.
Over the past few years, ATS has quietly transformed its business through a series of strategic acquisitions most notably in the Life Sciences sector. Deals for Comecer, PA, and SP Industries have helped ATS carve out a dominant position, with Life Sciences now making up about 44% of total revenue.
The lion’s share of that roughly two-thirds comes from Medical Devices, with the remainder split between Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals, and Radiopharmaceuticals.
This is a highly attractive space. The barriers to entry are significant, from regulatory requirements to technological sophistication, and customers are less price-sensitive. Instead, performance metrics like speed, precision, and consistency are what drive buying decisions. In a market like that, ATS’s vertically integrated automation offering gives it a serious edge.
ATS has also expanded into the Food & Beverage sector, starting with its acquisition of MARCO for $57 million in fiscal 2020, and then doubling down with the $260 million purchase of CFT in 2021. The company now plays a role in everything from produce inspection to beverage filling. With tightening food safety regulations and changing consumer preferences driving demand, this is a category with long-term tailwinds and relatively low automation penetration meaning lots of room to run.
Interestingly, ATS’s exposure to the Transportation sector has seen a complete evolution. Back in 2009, it accounted for 32% of the business, but by 2022 that figure had dropped to just 14%. Now it’s back up to 29% but this time, the growth is being driven by Electric Vehicles and aerospace, not internal combustion engines. ATS has already delivered over 70 EV battery assembly systems worldwide. Yes, the EV cycle has cooled off recently, and that’s partly why ATS stock has lagged. But we think the market is overcorrecting. ATS isn’t a fly-by-night EV startup it’s a picks-and-shovels play in battery assembly, which remains a secular growth story even if near-term demand is lumpy.
Energy and Consumer are currently smaller pieces of the pie, but both are long-duration growth stories. As ATS continues to diversify its segment exposure and execute on its end-market strategy, these categories could become more material contributors to revenue over time.
And underneath it all, the revenue streams break down even further by the nature of the work ATS performs everything from turnkey systems to retrofits and ongoing services. That blend gives ATS resilience, recurring revenue, and a strong foundation for long-term compounding.
TD Securities maintained a Buy rating on ATS Corporation, with a price target of C$49.00.
Raymond James analyst Michael Glen maintained a Buy rating on ATS Corporation today and set a price target of C$48.00.
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on ATS, Lowers Price Target to C$48
Goldman Sachs Maintains Sell on ATS, Lowers Price Target to $30
JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on ATS, Lowers Price Target to $31
Company: Ouster, Inc
Quote: $OUST
BT: $25.35
ST: $40
Sharks Opinion:
Ouster is a name we remain excited about, especially given the strong tailwinds behind the lidar and autonomous systems space. The stock has shown impressive momentum recently, and elevated volume levels continue to reinforce our bullish stance suggesting strong institutional interest and potential follow-through.
That said, we’re also aware that Ouster appears technically overbought in the near term. While that doesn't necessarily signal an imminent reversal, it does call for a more cautious approach in the short run.
Since our initial entry, the stock has mostly traded sideways, consolidating its recent gains without making a definitive move higher.
We're maintaining our position but keeping a close eye on price action. If the stock stalls or loses momentum, especially without a fundamental catalyst, we’ve set a soft exit trigger around the $20 level. This isn’t a panic sell line but rather a risk-management zone if upside progress stalls or sentiment turns.
For now, we remain in wait-and-see mode. Ouster continues to sit on a strong long-term thesis, and with lidar tech adoption rising across automotive, industrial, and defense sectors, the next big move could still be ahead.
Description: Ouster, Inc. provides lidar sensors for the automotive, industrial, robotics, and smart infrastructure industries in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Its products include high-resolution scanning and solid-state digital lidar sensors, analog lidar sensors, and software solutions. The company offers Ouster Sensor, a scanning sensor; and Digital Flash, a solid-state flash sensor.
While many remember Ouster as the company that merged with a struggling Velodyne to survive the post-SPAC wipeout, what’s emerged since is a far more focused and disciplined player quietly scaling into a $70 billion market opportunity. Ouster isn’t just clinging to the automotive hype that once defined the LiDAR space they’re actively positioning themselves for broader adoption across four key verticals: automotive, industrial, robotics, and smart infrastructure.
The company believes that non-automotive LiDAR applications
think heavy machinery, warehouse robotics, autonomous delivery, and city traffic systems—will outpace traditional auto sector adoption in the years ahead. That’s a bold claim, but it’s backed by meaningful execution: nine straight quarters of meeting or exceeding guidance, all while maintaining a lean cost structure.
Revenue is currently balanced across all four sectors, with a growing list of high-profile clients including John Deere, Komatsu, Motional, May Mobility, Forterra, and Serve Robotics. These aren’t speculative bets—they’re real companies with real deployment plans.
Financially, Ouster is on relatively solid footing. As of March 31, they had $171 million in cash and burned through about $37 million so far in 2025. Management is guiding for 30–50% annual revenue growth with gross margins in the 35–40% range numbers that, if sustained, could push the company toward profitability sooner than many of its peers.
The key for Ouster now is scale.
With many of its customers moving from prototype stages into commercial deployment, the next few quarters could be pivotal. If demand materializes as expected, Ouster has the infrastructure and capital to ride that wave.
Yes, the stock has already surged, but that doesn’t negate the long-term potential. If LiDAR becomes a foundational layer of the robotics and automation stack as Ouster is betting—it may still be early days for this name.
Ouster kicked off 2025 with solid execution, reporting $33 million in revenue a 26% year-over-year increase and up 8% from the prior quarter. That topline growth was fueled by the shipment of approximately 4,700 sensors, with strong demand coming from the industrial and automotive sectors. Key applications included warehouse automation, yard logistics, and the ramping rollout of robotaxis.
Gross margins were a standout. GAAP gross margin improved to 41%, up dramatically from 29% a year ago, while non-GAAP gross margin came in at 46%, reflecting a more favorable product mix and the inclusion of around $2 million in high-margin patent royalty revenue. That royalty alone contributed roughly 300 basis points to both GAAP and non-GAAP margins, helping offset ongoing macro and supply-chain volatility.
On the bottom line, Ouster posted a net loss of $22 million narrower than the $24 million loss in both Q1 2024 and the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA loss also improved, shrinking to $8 million from $12 million a year earlier. These results mark continued progress toward Ouster’s stated goal of profitability.
Importantly, the company remains well-capitalized, ending the quarter with $171 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. With geopolitical uncertainty still looming, Ouster is proactively engaging with customers to avoid disruption and maintain deployment momentum.
All told, Q1 underscores a company still in transition but clearly heading in the right direction. The margin expansion, customer diversification, and patent monetization are all green flags for a business that’s trying to move past its SPAC-era legacy and prove it has staying power in the next wave of automation and robotics.
WestPark Capital Upgrades Ouster to Buy, Announces $13.68 Price Target
Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On Ouster with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $16
Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Ouster, Raises Price Target to $11
Rosenblatt Maintains Buy on Ouster, Maintains $17 Price Target
Company: Serve Robotics Inc.
Quote: $SERV
BT: $11.01
ST: $18-$30 (the speculation for what it could be is its greatest advantage)
Sharks Opinion:
Serve Robotics is a name we've tracked for some time flagged it early, watched the narrative build, but held off on pulling the trigger. Why? Because while the concept was compelling, the execution hadn’t caught up to the hype until now, perhaps.
The stock is showing signs of life, consolidating after a period of relative dormancy, just as robotics reclaims the market spotlight in 2025. With investor appetite shifting from speculative AI chatter to real-world automation plays, Serve is moving closer to the top of our trade radar.
The thesis remains straightforward: last-mile delivery is broken. Labor costs are rising. Fulfillment expectations are tightening. And automation is no longer a luxury—it’s becoming a necessity. Serve’s robots, built for urban delivery, could be part of that solution.
The positives:
Backing from high-profile investors
Notable commercial partnerships
And most importantly, tech that's already deployed and collecting data
But there’s an elephant in the room: time. Serve needs to scale faster than it burns cash. In the world of early stage robotics, capital efficiency and runway matter just as much as innovation.
The risk isn’t whether autonomous delivery will exist it’s whether Serve will still be standing when it arrives.
Still, if the current robotics rally gains traction and investor focus broadens beyond humanoids and industrial arms, Serve could benefit from a rotation into niche, real-world automation names. It’s a high-risk, high-upside setup but one worth watching closely as the market begins to differentiate between ideas and execution
Description: Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces for food delivery activity in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
This is why Serve is a no brainer investment from a far.
The company is taking aim at one of the biggest inefficiencies in modern logistics: using full-sized cars and paid human drivers to deliver a $12 meal. It’s an outdated system in a world where automation is rapidly eating into labor-heavy industries. Serve believes the last mile will be owned by robots and drones, not delivery apps and gig workers and that belief aligns with a $450 billion market opportunity projected by 2030.
What makes Serve stand out is that it’s not just pitching a concept. Its robots have already reached Level 4 autonomy meaning they can navigate sidewalks and deliver food within geo-fenced urban areas without human intervention.
These aren’t beta tests either. Since early 2022, Serve has successfully completed over 100,000 deliveries in Los Angeles, and they’ve done it with 99.8% accuracy. That level of reliability already exceeds what you’d get from a human workforce, and it positions Serve as a real player in the future of urban delivery.
Execution is always the final hurdle but from a distance, it’s hard not to see Serve as one of the purest and most grounded bets in the delivery robotics space.
Scaling Fast, But the Clock Is Ticking
Serve Robotics is in execution mode, aiming to deploy 2,000 of its new Gen3 robots this year as part of its agreement with Uber Eats. The company launched 250 robots in Q1 2025, with 700 more expected by the end of Q3 and the remainder scheduled for Q4. The Gen3 rollout is already enabling geographic expansion, with new markets like Miami and Dallas online and Atlanta queued up for this quarter.
On the financial side, Q1 revenue came in at just $440,465 a 53% drop from the same quarter last year. But that decline isn’t as bad as it looks on the surface. The year-ago quarter was boosted by a one-time software licensing deal with Magna, which skews the comparison. A more relevant metric: Q1 revenue was up 150% sequentially from Q4 2024, signaling the core delivery business is starting to pick up momentum.
According to Yahoo! Finance estimates, Serve could generate $6.8 million in revenue this year, which would imply rapid acceleration in the back half of 2025 as more robots hit the streets. But the excitement around top-line growth is tempered by a deeper concern.
Serve lost $13.2 million in Q1 alone, putting it on track to surpass its $39.2 million loss from 2024. R&D remains the biggest expense category consistently eating up about half of total operating costs which isn’t unusual for an early-stage robotics company, but it’s a burn rate that needs to be watched.
The good news: Serve ended Q1 with $197.7 million in cash, giving it enough runway to fund operations for the next couple of years without needing to panic.
The challenge? If the company doesn’t show a clear path to profitability, it may have to return to the markets to raise more capital which would dilute existing shareholders significantly.
In short, Serve is scaling fast and making the right moves but it’s a race against time.
Serve’s latest Gen3 robot marks a major leap forward in both performance and economics, which could significantly accelerate the company’s path to scale.
Powered by Nvidia’s Jetson Orin system, the Gen3 robot delivers five times the onboard computing power of its predecessor critical for real-time decision-making and safe autonomous navigation. It also features Ouster’s REV7 lidar for enhanced perception and obstacle detection.
Beyond raw processing power, the upgrades translate into real-world gains: the new bots are twice as fast, have double the operational range, and carry more payload—enough to handle up to four 16-inch pizzas per run. That’s a meaningful boost in delivery efficiency per trip.
Just as important is the cost side of the equation. Serve has partnered with Magna International, a $14.5 billion automotive components manufacturer, to reduce production costs. The result? Gen3 units are up to 65% cheaper to produce. That’s a massive improvement in unit economics and a vital step toward profitability.
Serve is aiming for a flat $1 per delivery model across all markets. Reaching that target at scale requires not just speed and range, but low-cost manufacturing and minimal downtime.
Gen3 checks all those boxes. With 2,000 units expected to roll out by the end of 2025, this new generation of robots could finally give Serve the scale advantage it needs to turn a compelling idea into a cash-flowing business.
Cantor Fitzgerald Initiates Coverage On Serve Robotics with Overweight Rating, Announces Price Target of $17
Northland Capital Markets Maintains Outperform on Serve Robotics, Raises Price Target to $23
Ladenburg Thalmann Initiates Coverage On Serve Robotics with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $16
Company: Pony AI
Quote: $PONY
BT: $18.14
ST: $28 (short term)
Sharks Opinion:
Pony.ai has delivered one of the wildest trading rides in our recent memory. After launching with a blistering 35% move, the stock gave it all back just as fast, dipping below the $10 mark before mounting an equally fierce comeback. It’s been a round-trip rollercoaster, and the drama isn’t over yet.
The past two weeks have added fuel to the fire on both sides of the tape.
On the bullish side, rumors are swirling that Pony.ai may be in talks to sell its U.S. assets to none other than Travis Kalanick, the former Uber founder. That speculation alone sent shares flying, as investors began pricing in the possibility of a strategic windfall or even an exit ramp from the regulatory tightrope Pony has been walking.
But it wasn’t all upside.
Grizzly Research, a well-known short-selling firm, released a scathing report on Pony, raising serious questions about the company’s financials, partnerships, and viability. As is often the case with short reports, it injected a fresh dose of fear and uncertainty into the name, reigniting volatility.
As it stands, Pony.ai has become a battleground stock a tug-of-war between bullish speculation and bearish skepticism. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but with limited verifiable information and conflicting headlines, visibility remains murky.
For now, we’re still long the name but recognize the risk profile here is elevated. This is not a set-it-and-forget-it play it’s a fluid situation that requires ongoing monitoring. If confirmation emerges on either the asset sale or further fallout from the short report, we’ll reassess.
Recent Reports:
Pony AI (PONY) Q1 2025 Earnings Overview
Description: Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility in the People’s Republic of China and the United States. The company provides robotruck services, such as transportation services to the logistics platforms. It also offers robotaxi services, including a suite of AV engineering solutions comprising AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering, and road testing; and fare-charging robotaxi services. In addition, the company offers personally-owned vehicle intelligent solutions, including intelligent driving software solutions, proprietary vehicle domain controller products, and data analytics tools; vehicle integration services, software development, and licensing services; and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) products and services to enhance road safety. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Guangzhou, the People’s Republic of China.
Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $20
B of A Securities Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $18
Goldman Sachs Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $19.6
