Q3 Trade Recap & Q3 Strategy Outlook:
As we close in on the final month of Q3, our activity has been measured just two trades this quarter, one that remains at our buy level and another that delivered outsized returns much faster than anticipated. The restraint has been intentional. With equity indices pressing toward highs and seasonality pointing to softer conditions, we see the market as a bit toppy in the near term.
Our 2025 playbook has been focused on swing trading high-conviction setups tied to catalysts. That approach has worked, especially in a macro-driven, headline-sensitive environment. Discipline has been key taking profits when available rather than exposing capital to unnecessary downside. As the saying goes: you can’t go broke taking profits.
While we’ve wanted to get more aggressive, the political backdrop and Fed uncertainty argue for patience. Sometimes the best trade is no trade, and so far that restraint has served us well.
New Position
TER (Teradyne): Initiated a long. Strong valuation and further upside potential as the company expands its footprint in robotics and semiconductors, two themes we see as central to the next leg of growth.
Lessons from Exits
OUST (Ouster): Exited with a 20% return. Volume began to thin, valuation stretched, and earnings didn’t deliver the growth we expected. The stock has since stayed near our exit level—confirming the discipline of our exit.
BMNR (Bitmine): The standout trade of the year so far—100% return in under two weeks. Timing and luck played roles, but the setup was clear. We’re evaluating other crypto-treasury names for swing trades, but with the space increasingly crowded, we’ll stay selective.
Q3 Sector Strategy
We’re leaning into sectors with structural tailwinds and stepping back from areas facing headwinds:
Overweight
Tech: AI and robotics continue to attract inflows and strategic interest.
Crypto: Positioned ahead of expected legislation and renewed institutional adoption.
M&A-linked Midcaps: Companies in consolidating industries with takeover potential.
Final Takeaway
Markets are strong, but volatility risk is rising. Seasonal weakness, softer data, or geopolitical shocks could trigger pullbacks. We see those as entry points, not red flags.
Heading into earnings season and macro catalysts, we’ll keep leaning into strength, managing risk with sizing discipline, and staying agile. The broader setup remains constructive Q3 may still deliver tactical opportunities for patient investors.
Most Recent Reports (click link):
Q2: 13F Quarterly Overview 2025: Hedge Funds & Institutions”
Pony AI (PONY) Q2 Earnings Overview
ATS Corp (ATS) Q1 2025 Earnings Overview
Homerun Resources (HMR,HMRFF) Overview 2025
Rocket-lab (RKLB) Q2 2025 Earnings Overview
Palantir (PLTR) Q2 Earnings Overview
Longs:
These are stocks we have been long for some time and the current BT doesn’t represent other entry prices, The BT is updated weekly for new subscribers to jump in and know when to get out.
These stocks tend to have 6 Month-2 years holding period and is suggested for larger capital Allocations in your portfolio.
Please read the Overviews for full research and instructions on how to trade each name individually.
Company: ATS Corporation
Quote: $ATS
BT: $29.72
ST: $48
Sharks Opinion:
Since initiating our position in ATS, the stock hasn’t done much on the surface but that’s exactly in line with expectations. ATS isn’t a flashy name. It’s an industrial operator, steady and methodical, often overlooked on the tape. That quiet consistency is part of its appeal.
Recently, though, momentum has begun to build. Volume is rising, particularly following the recent CEO transition news, a development that often points to institutional repositioning or accumulation. Technically, the setup is constructive, and we believe ATS is primed for a breakout if this trend continues.
We initiated a starter position on the recent dip, seeing it as a long-term entry into a name tied to secular growth themes. This isn’t a quick swing trade it’s a slower-developing position with significant runway if our thesis plays out.
We continue to view ATS as our top robotics sector pick, offering:
Real industrial exposure to automation and AI- driven manufacturing
Tailwinds from reshoring trends
Potential M&A upside as capital rotates toward next-gen automation plays
In short: ATS may not be moving yet, but the foundation is there. As robotics and automation gain more strategic and institutional attention, ATS stands well-positioned to benefit from both organic growth and sector-wide consolidation.
Description: ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides automation solutions worldwide. The company is involved in planning, designing, building, commissioning, and servicing automated manufacturing and assembly systems, including automation products and test solutions. It also offers pre-automation services comprising discovery and analysis, concept development, simulation, and total cost of ownership modelling; post-automation services, including training, process optimization, preventative maintenance, emergency and on-call support, spare parts, retooling, retrofits, and equipment relocation; and contract manufacturing services, as well as after sales and services.
ATS is a behind-the-scenes powerhouse in the robotics and automation world. As both a System Integrator and an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), ATS plays a crucial role in automating the production lines of some of the world’s biggest companies. What sets it apart is its full-stack offering everything from pre-automation consulting to post-installation support.
At the front end, ATS works with clients to assess feasibility through concept design, simulations, and cost modeling. Once a project moves forward, ATS builds and integrates tailored automation systems using both proprietary and third-party components, while layering in software, engineering, and controls.
And it doesn’t stop at delivery the company stays involved with training, process optimization, emergency repairs, spare parts, and even retooling or relocating equipment. This makes ATS more than just an automation vendor it’s a long-term automation partner.
Financially, the company continues to show solid operating performance. For the quarter ending March 31, 2025, ATS posted revenues of $721 million.
While it recorded a net loss of $68.9 million and a loss from operations of $113.6 million primarily driven by items related to a recent agreement its adjusted results paint a stronger picture. Adjusted net income came in at $40 million, adjusted earnings from operations reached $74.3 million (a 10.3% margin), and adjusted EBITDA totaled $97.1 million (13.5% margin). That kind of profitability in a capital-intensive sector speaks to how well-managed ATS is.
The company also posted $863 million in new order bookings during the quarter and now sits on a robust order backlog of $2.14 billion, providing solid visibility into future revenue.
All in, ATS is a vertically integrated automation play with strong financials, recurring revenue streams, and deep relationships in critical industries from pharma to nuclear. It's not flashy, but it’s the kind of quiet compounder that can surprise to the upside, especially as the broader robotics and automation trend gains momentum.
Over the past few years, ATS has quietly transformed its business through a series of strategic acquisitions most notably in the Life Sciences sector. Deals for Comecer, PA, and SP Industries have helped ATS carve out a dominant position, with Life Sciences now making up about 44% of total revenue. The lion’s share of that roughly two-thirds comes from Medical Devices, with the remainder split between Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals, and Radiopharmaceuticals.
This is a highly attractive space. The barriers to entry are significant, from regulatory requirements to technological sophistication, and customers are less price-sensitive. Instead, performance metrics like speed, precision, and consistency are what drive buying decisions. In a market like that, ATS’s vertically integrated automation offering gives it a serious edge.
ATS has also expanded into the Food & Beverage sector, starting with its acquisition of MARCO for $57 million in fiscal 2020, and then doubling down with the $260 million purchase of CFT in 2021. The company now plays a role in everything from produce inspection to beverage filling. With tightening food safety regulations and changing consumer preferences driving demand, this is a category with long-term tailwinds and relatively low automation penetration meaning lots of room to run.
Interestingly, ATS’s exposure to the Transportation sector has seen a complete evolution. Back in 2009, it accounted for 32% of the business, but by 2022 that figure had dropped to just 14%. Now it’s back up to 29% but this time, the growth is being driven by Electric Vehicles and aerospace, not internal combustion engines. ATS has already delivered over 70 EV battery assembly systems worldwide. Yes, the EV cycle has cooled off recently, and that’s partly why ATS stock has lagged. But we think the market is overcorrecting. ATS isn’t a fly-by-night EV startup it’s a picks-and-shovels play in battery assembly, which remains a secular growth story even if near-term demand is lumpy.
Energy and Consumer are currently smaller pieces of the pie, but both are long-duration growth stories. As ATS continues to diversify its segment exposure and execute on its end-market strategy, these categories could become more material contributors to revenue over time.
And underneath it all, the revenue streams break down even further by the nature of the work ATS performs everything from turnkey systems to retrofits and ongoing services. That blend gives ATS resilience, recurring revenue, and a strong foundation for long-term compounding.
TD Securities maintained a Buy rating on ATS Corporation, with a price target of C$49.00.
Raymond James analyst Michael Glen maintained a Buy rating on ATS
Corporation today and set a price target of C$48.00.
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on ATS, Lowers Price Target to C$48
Goldman Sachs Maintains Sell on ATS, Lowers Price Target to $30
JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on ATS, Lowers Price Target to $31
Company: Teradyne, Inc.
Quote: $TER
BT: $118.62
ST: $160+
Sharks Opinion:
We’ve had Teradyne (TER) on watch for several months under our Robotics theme, and the setup is starting to look increasingly attractive. The stock bottomed around $80 earlier this year, then staged a rebound on the back of a solid earnings print and reports tying it to Amazon’s robotics supply chain. Momentum has been constructive, but the real question is timing: do we step in now for a swing trade, or wait for a potential pullback to size up a longer-term allocation?
Why it Works as a Trade:
The bounce has been technically strong, showing buyers defending support after the $80 base. Earnings momentum plus Amazon exposure provide the near-term catalyst that traders look for. If timed well, the stock could see another leg higher as robotics adoption headlines continue to flow.
Why it Works as an Investment:
Dual Identity: Teradyne isn’t just about chip-testing hardware; its robotics arm adds a software-driven growth story with high switching costs. Moat Protection: Rivals struggle to match Teradyne’s capital intensity, engineering complexity, and embedded expertise.
Growth Shift: Semiconductors power today’s numbers, but robotics could define the future, spanning automotive, aerospace, and AI-driven applications.
The Bigger Picture:
Teradyne is anchored by hardware-software synergy, reinforced by a global distribution network and a sticky customer base with little incentive to switch. That makes the company both a short-term trading setup and a long-term moat play.
Our View:
We think there’s still room for TER to run, but the best strategy may be twofold: trade the momentum while keeping dry powder for a pullback that allows building a longer-term position. If history repeats, robotics headlines and ongoing semiconductor demand could put the stock back into an acceleration phase with upside beyond just the next swing.
Description: Teradyne, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells automated test systems and robotics products in the United States, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Semiconductor Test, Robotics, and Other segments.
In May, Amazon (AMZN) unveiled its newest step in automation: the Vulcan robot, designed to “change the way we operate.” The announcement spotlighted a major breakthrough robots with a sense of touch and quickly sent shares of Teradyne (TER) higher after reports tied the company to the project.
The Connection:
Teradyne’s robotics division, which includes Universal Robots and Mobile Industrial Robots (MiR), is providing the limbs that give Vulcan its dexterity. For Amazon, the ability to pick and stow items with precision has always been a hurdle for robotic systems. Vulcan changes that narrative, making it a significant leap forward in warehouse automation.
The Numbers That Matter:
Robotics contributes roughly 10–15% of Teradyne’s revenue, a segment often overshadowed by its semiconductor testing dominance. With Amazon aiming to automate 80% of the 14 billion items stowed by hand each year, the potential value of Teradyne’s role could be about $400 million. Beyond the Amazon deal, Vulcan’s success could establish Universal Robots as a go-to supplier for other industrial automation leaders.
Bigger Implications:
For Teradyne, this is more than just a revenue bump it’s a validation of its long- term robotics bet. The Amazon partnership not only provides near-term upside but also positions Teradyne as a key player in the future of industrial robotics. For Amazon, Vulcan signals a fundamental shift in how the company views automation. It’s not just about replacing labor; it’s about robots reaching a level of capability once thought out of reach.
Our Take:
The Vulcan story highlights how Teradyne is bridging semiconductors and robotics into a durable growth engine. With one of the world’s largest retailers pushing toward full-scale automation, the upside for Teradyne’s robotics division could be just beginning.
At its core, Teradyne (TER) operates on two powerful fronts semiconductor testing and robotics each strengthened by proprietary software that locks in customers and drives durable cash flow.
Semiconductor Test Leadership
Teradyne’s flagship platforms, like UltraFLEX, combine multi-site testing with the proprietary IG-XL software environment, lowering cost per chip while creating high switching costs for customers. With more than 1.5 billion chips tested annually on its systems, Teradyne is deeply embedded in the global semiconductor supply chain, from consumer electronics to advanced AI processors.
Robotics: A Parallel Growth Engine
Universal Robots dominates the collaborative robot (“cobot”) market, with 75,000+ units deployed worldwide. Its intuitive PolyScope software and 120+ global training centers give it both scale and stickiness. Customers typically see a 12–18 month ROI, making adoption a compelling choice for manufacturers.
Mobile Industrial Robots (MiR) addresses warehouse automation with a 12–24 month payback period. Its MiR Fleet software integrates fleets of autonomous mobile robots across logistics and manufacturing, unlocking efficiency gains for enterprises shifting to flexible automation.
Global Reach
Roughly 75% of Teradyne’s revenue comes from Asia-Pacific, particularly semiconductor hubs like Taiwan, South Korea, and mainland China. This geographic footprint reflects both the intensity of global chip production in the region and Teradyne’s entrenched role as a supplier to leading fabs and electronics manufacturers.
Why It Matters
Teradyne’s unique model balancing capital-intensive semiconductor testing with high-ROI robotics creates multiple long-term growth levers. Semiconductors ensure cash stability, while robotics provides the next wave of scalable expansion. With global manufacturing racing toward automation,
Teradyne is positioned at the intersection of chips and robots two of the most powerful trends of the decade.
Teradyne’s latest earnings showed a company that continues to beat near-term estimates while building out long-term structural advantages.
Quarterly Performance
EPS: Delivered $0.57, ahead of analyst expectations of $0.54.
Revenue: Reported $651.8 million, down 11% YoY but still above forecasts.
Segment Breakdown:
Semiconductor Test Group: $492 million (vs. $488.6 million expected)
Robotics: $75 million
Product Test: $85 million
The top line came under pressure year-over-year, but the company once again demonstrated resilience by topping consensus on both earnings and revenue.
Forward Guidance
Management guided Q3 revenue to a range of $710 million to $770 million, representing sequential growth from Q2 but coming in mixed relative to Wall Street expectations. The projected EPS range of $0.69–$0.87 missed the street’s $0.89 target, suggesting near-term margin pressure even as top-line growth recovers.
Revenue Mix and Recurring Strength
In 2024, Teradyne generated more than $2.4 billion from hardware sales recognized at delivery, but also booked $405 million in revenue recognized over time. That recurring layer covering services, support, and software subscriptions represents more than a cushion; it’s a structural moat that deepens customer reliance on Teradyne’s ecosystem.
Why Customers Stick
Switching away from Teradyne is rare. The economics of high switching costs are evident in both segments:
In semiconductors, chipmakers build production cycles around Teradyne’s platforms and software, making a move disruptive and costly.
In robotics, once a factory adopts Universal Robots, it commits to accessories, workflow training, and operator familiarity. That investment becomes cultural as much as financial, embedding Teradyne into day-to-day operations.
The Bigger Picture
Teradyne is balancing near-term cyclical softness in semiconductors with the long-term tailwinds of robotics and recurring software-driven revenue.
Even as headline growth cools, the company continues to quietly strengthen its foundation one that ensures cash flow resilience today and optionality for tomorrow.
Stifel Maintains Hold on Teradyne, Raises Price Target to $100
UBS Maintains Buy on Teradyne, Raises Price Target to $130
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Teradyne to Equal-Weight, Raises Price Target to $100
UBS Maintains Buy on Teradyne, Raises Price Target to $120
JP Morgan Downgrades Teradyne to Neutral, Raises Price Target to $102
Company: Serve Robotics Inc.
Quote: $SERV
BT: $11.01
ST: $18-$30 (the speculation for what it could be is
its greatest advantage)
Sharks Opinion:
Serve Robotics is a name we've tracked for some time flagged it early, watched the narrative build, but held off on pulling the trigger. Why? Because while the concept was compelling, the execution hadn’t caught up to the hype until now, perhaps.
The stock is showing signs of life, consolidating after a period of relative dormancy, just as robotics reclaims the market spotlight in 2025. With investor appetite shifting from speculative AI chatter to real-world automation plays, Serve is moving closer to the top of our trade radar.
The thesis remains straightforward: last-mile delivery is broken. Labor costs are rising.
Fulfillment expectations are tightening. And automation is no longer a luxury—it’s becoming a necessity. Serve’s robots, built for urban delivery, could be part of that solution.
The positives:
Backing from high-profile investors
Notable commercial partnerships
And most importantly, tech that's already deployed and collecting data
But there’s an elephant in the room: time. Serve needs to scale faster than it burns cash. In the world of early stage robotics, capital efficiency and runway matter just as much as innovation.
The risk isn’t whether autonomous delivery will exist it’s whether Serve will still be standing when it arrives.
Still, if the current robotics rally gains traction and investor focus broadens beyond humanoids and industrial arms, Serve could benefit from a rotation into niche, real-world automation names. It’s a high-risk, high-upside setup but one worth watching closely as the market begins to differentiate between ideas and execution
Description: Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public spaces for food delivery activity in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Redwood City California.
This is why Serve is a no brainer investment from a far.
The company is taking aim at one of the biggest inefficiencies in modern logistics: using full-sized cars and paid human drivers to deliver a $12 meal. It’s an outdated system in a world where automation is rapidly eating into labor- heavy industries. Serve believes the last mile will be owned by robots and drones, not delivery apps and gig workers and that belief aligns with a $450 billion market opportunity projected by 2030.
What makes Serve stand out is that it’s not just pitching a concept. Its robots have already reached Level 4 autonomy meaning they can navigate sidewalks and deliver food within geo-fenced urban areas without human intervention.
These aren’t beta tests either. Since early 2022, Serve has successfully completed over 100,000 deliveries in Los Angeles, and they’ve done it with 99.8% accuracy. That level of reliability already exceeds what you’d get from a human workforce, and it positions Serve as a real player in the future of urban delivery.
Execution is always the final hurdle but from a distance, it’s hard not to see Serve as one of the purest and most grounded bets in the delivery robotics space.
Scaling Fast, But the Clock Is Ticking
Serve Robotics is in execution mode, aiming to deploy 2,000 of its new Gen3 robots this year as part of its agreement with Uber Eats. The company launched 250 robots in Q1 2025, with 700 more expected by the end of Q3 and the remainder scheduled for Q4. The Gen3 rollout is already enabling geographic expansion, with new markets like Miami and Dallas online and Atlanta queued up for this quarter.
On the financial side, Q1 revenue came in at just $440,465 a 53% drop from the same quarter last year. But that decline isn’t as bad as it looks on the surface. The year-ago quarter was boosted by a one-time software licensing deal with Magna, which skews the comparison. A more relevant metric: Q1 revenue was up 150% sequentially from Q4 2024, signaling the core delivery business is starting to pick up momentum.
According to Yahoo! Finance estimates, Serve could generate $6.8 million in. revenue this year, which would imply rapid acceleration in the back half of 2025 as more robots hit the streets. But the excitement around top-line growth is tempered by a deeper concern.
Serve lost $13.2 million in Q1 alone, putting it on track to surpass its $39.2 million loss from 2024. R&D remains the biggest expense category consistently eating up about half of total operating costs which isn’t unusual for an early-stage robotics company, but it’s a burn rate that needs to be watched.
The good news: Serve ended Q1 with $197.7 million in cash, giving it enough runway to fund operations for the next couple of years without needing to panic.
The challenge? If the company doesn’t show a clear path to profitability, it may have to return to the markets to raise more capital which would dilute existing shareholders significantly.
In short, Serve is scaling fast and making the right moves but it’s a race against time.
Serve’s latest Gen3 robot marks a major leap forward in both performance and economics, which could significantly accelerate the company’s path to scale.
Powered by Nvidia’s Jetson Orin system, the Gen3 robot delivers five times the onboard computing power of its predecessor critical for real-time decision- making and safe autonomous navigation. It also features Ouster’s REV7 lidar for enhanced perception and obstacle detection.
Beyond raw processing power, the upgrades translate into real-world gains: the new bots are twice as fast, have double the operational range, and carry more payload—enough to handle up to four 16-inch pizzas per run. That’s a meaningful boost in delivery efficiency per trip.
Just as important is the cost side of the equation. Serve has partnered with Magna International, a $14.5 billion automotive components manufacturer, to reduce production costs. The result? Gen3 units are up to 65% cheaper to produce. That’s a massive improvement in unit economics and a vital step toward profitability.
Serve is aiming for a flat $1 per delivery model across all markets. Reaching that target at scale requires not just speed and range, but low-cost manufacturing and minimal downtime.
Gen3 checks all those boxes. With 2,000 units expected to roll out by the end of 2025, this new generation of robots could finally give Serve the scale advantage it needs to turn a compelling idea into a cash-flowing business.
Wedbush Initiates Coverage On Serve Robotics with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $15
Cantor Fitzgerald Initiates Coverage On Serve Robotics with Overweight Rating, Announces Price Target of $17
Northland Capital Markets Maintains Outperform on Serve Robotics, Raises Price Target to $23
Ladenburg Thalmann Initiates Coverage On Serve Robotics with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $16
Company: Pony AI
Quote: $PONY
BT: $18.14
ST: $28 (short term)
Sharks Opinion:
Pony.ai has delivered one of the wildest trading rides in our recent memory. After launching with a blistering 35% move, the stock gave it all back just as fast, dipping below the $10 mark before mounting an equally fierce comeback. It’s been a round-trip rollercoaster, and the drama isn’t over yet.
On the bullish side, rumors are swirling that Pony.ai may be in talks to sell its U.S. assets to none other than Travis Kalanick, the former Uber founder. That speculation alone sent shares flying, as investors began pricing in the possibility of a strategic windfall or even an exit ramp from the regulatory tightrope Pony has been walking. But it wasn’t all upside.
Grizzly Research, a well-known short-selling firm, released a scathing report on Pony, raising serious questions about the company’s financials, partnerships, and viability. As is often the case with short reports, it injected a fresh dose of fear and uncertainty into the name, reigniting volatility.
As it stands, Pony.ai has become a battleground stock a tug-of-war between bullish speculation and bearish skepticism. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle, but with limited verifiable information and conflicting headlines, visibility remains murky.
For now, we’re still long the name but recognize the risk profile here is elevated. This is not a set-it-and-forget-it play it’s a fluid situation that requires ongoing monitoring. If confirmation emerges on either the asset sale or further fallout from the short report, we’ll reassess.
Description: Pony AI Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the autonomous mobility in the People’s Republic of China and the United States. The company provides robotruck services, such as transportation services to the logistics platforms. It also offers robotaxi services, including a suite of AV engineering solutions comprising AV software deployment and maintenance, vehicle integration and engineering, and road testing; and fare-charging robotaxi services. In addition, the company offers personally-owned vehicle
intelligent solutions, including intelligent driving software solutions, proprietary vehicle domain controller products, and data analytics tools; vehicle integration services, software development, and licensing services; and vehicle- to-everything (V2X) products and services to enhance road safety. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Guangzhou, the People’s Republic of China.
Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $20
B of A Securities Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $18
Goldman Sachs Initiates Coverage On Pony AI with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $19.6
